Rural Voters and Farmers Are Losing Confidence in Trump — And the Numbers Show It

For years, rural America has been one of the most reliable pillars of Donald Trump's political support — but a new national poll suggests that foundation is starting to crack. Farmers struggling with soaring costs, rising bankruptcies, and shrinking markets are among those driving a sharp drop in the president's approval ratings in the countryside.

A Fox News poll released this week shows that Trump's net approval rating among rural voters has swung 34 points in the wrong direction since early 2025 — falling from +20 to -14. Among rural white voters specifically, the drop is nearly as steep, falling 33 points from +27 to -6. That means more rural voters now disapprove of the president than approve, a reversal that marks the first time this has happened in this polling series since he took office.

The poll was conducted May 15–18 among 1,002 registered voters nationwide. It was jointly run by Beacon Research, a Democratic-aligned firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican-aligned firm, using live phone interviews and online responses. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

What the Poll Found

Trump's overall approval rating sits at 39 percent — just one point above its lowest level in this polling series. But the more telling numbers are in the details. On the economy, only 29 percent of voters nationwide said they approve of how Trump is handling it, while 71 percent disapprove. Rural voters tracked almost identically: 30 percent approved and 70 percent disapproved.

Inflation is where voters expressed the most frustration. Just 24 percent of all respondents approved of Trump's handling of inflation, with 76 percent disapproving — the lowest score of any issue tested in the poll. Among rural voters, 28 percent approved and 71 percent disapproved.

Even issues that previously worked in Trump's favor are softening. On border security — long one of his strongest topics — his approval has dipped to 49 percent nationally, tipping into negative territory for the first time this term. Rural voters still lean positive on the issue, with 54 percent approving versus 45 percent disapproving, but the overall trend is downward.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News survey alongside Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, noted that the erosion is now touching voters who had stayed loyal longer than others.

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit," Shaw said. "Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

Farmers Are Feeling the Squeeze

Behind the polling numbers is a farm economy under serious pressure. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, farm bankruptcies rose 46 percent in 2025 compared with the year before. And conditions have continued to worsen in 2026, with rising fuel and fertilizer prices — driven in part by the escalating conflict in Iran and global energy disruptions — cutting into farmers' already thin profit margins.

Willis Nelson, a Louisiana farmer, described the situation plainly. His family has had to reduce how much fertilizer they use simply because they can no longer afford it at current prices.

"We're not financially able" to operate as normal, Nelson said, explaining that his family has had to cut back on fertilizer use because "we just don't have the margin."

Nelson added that the broader strain is putting his family's multigenerational farm at serious risk.

"It's tough, you know, very tough on us," he said.

Ohio farmer Fred Yoder shared similar concerns, pointing to the staggering increase in the cost of basic farming inputs. He described the daily financial burden of simply keeping equipment running and fields productive.

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors," Yoder said. "I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

Trade pressures are adding to the problem. Reduced demand from China for American agricultural exports — especially soybeans — has left many farmers with weaker prices and fewer reliable buyers for their crops. That pain comes even as Trump, during a recent trip to Beijing, argued against restricting Chinese purchases of U.S. farmland, saying such limits would lower land values. That stance has unsettled many farmers who are already worried about foreign ownership of American agricultural land.

The Political Stakes

Rural voters have historically delivered large margins for Republican candidates, and those margins have been essential to Trump's electoral victories. Even modest shifts in rural turnout or enthusiasm could affect closely contested Senate and House races later this year, making this polling movement worth watching closely as the midterm elections approach.

The White House pushed back on the poll's significance. Spokesman Kush Desai argued that the U.S. economy has remained "resilient" under Trump and that better results are still ahead.

"As this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term," Desai said.

Spokesman Davis Ingle pointed to Trump's 2024 election victory as the more meaningful measure of public support, saying "the ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda." Ingle added that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more."